Gold Might Just Touch ₹1.05 Lakh if Israel-Iran Tensions Get Worse
Let’s be honest—gold’s been on fire this year. Up 31% since January? That’s crazy. And get this—back in 2005, you could buy gold at ₹7,638 per 10 grams. Now? It’s crossed ₹1 lakh. A 1,200% jump in two decades. Silver’s no slouch either, with a 668% rise. But here’s what everyone’s whispering about: if Israel and Iran really go at it, could gold hit ₹1.05 lakh sooner than we think?
Why Gold’s Going Bonkers Right Now
Politics Playing Out Badly
When countries start threatening each other, money runs to gold. Always has. Remember Ukraine? Gold shot up 15% in three months. COVID? Another 25% spike. Now with Israel and Iran trading barbs—yeah, you see where this is going. It’s like that uncle who hoards gold during elections, just on a global scale.
Economy’s Not Helping Either
Inflation’s eating into everything—eggs, petrol, your chai bill. And the rupee? Not exactly winning any strength contests lately. That’s why RBI and China’s central bank are stacking gold like there’s no tomorrow. Smart move, honestly. When paper money feels shaky, people cling to what’s shiny and heavy.
Everyone’s Scared of Stocks
Look, I get it. You check your portfolio, see red everywhere, and suddenly buying that gold chain doesn’t seem like such a bad “investment.” Gold ETFs have seen money pouring in for six straight months. And physical gold sales? Through the roof. Fear’s a powerful thing, man.
Gold’s Crazy Journey: From ₹7,638 to ₹1 Lakh+
Let me put it this way—if you’d put ₹1 lakh in gold in 2005, you’d be sitting on ₹13 lakh today. Nifty would’ve given you about ₹7.5 lakh. Real estate? Maybe ₹4-5 lakh in metros. Gold doesn’t shout about its wins—it just quietly compounds while everything else crashes and burns. 2008 crisis? Gold up 24%. Pandemic? Another 25%. The silent winner, really.
₹1.05 Lakh for Gold—Possible or Pipe Dream?
Why It Could Happen
- War Drama: Edelweiss says every 10% escalation in Middle East tensions could add ₹5-7k to gold prices. That’s one expensive conflict.
- Fed Might Ease Up: If US cuts rates later this year, dollar weakens, gold gets stronger. Basic math.
- Indian Wedding Season: Come on, you know how this goes. Diwali + weddings = gold demand goes brrr.
What Could Go Wrong
- Peace Breaks Out: Unlikely, but if it happens, gold could drop 5-10% overnight.
- Dollar Gets Stronger: US economy surprises everyone, gold takes a hit.
- That Bitcoin Nonsense: Some folks think crypto’s “digital gold.” I think they’ve been smoking something.
What the Experts Say
“₹1.05 lakh isn’t fantasy if this Israel-Iran thing drags into Q3,” says Chirag Mehta from Quantum AMC. Charts show ₹1,02,500 as the next big hurdle, with ₹1.05 lakh being more psychological than anything.
Silver’s Also Having a Moment—Worth a Look?
Silver’s up 668% since 2005—not bad, right? But here’s the kicker: it’s got industrial uses too (solar panels, EVs, all that green tech). The gold-silver ratio’s around 80:1 right now, which historically means silver’s cheap. When gold runs, silver often runs faster. Just saying.
How to Get In On This Gold Rush
Physical Gold
Jewelry’s great for weddings but terrible for investing—those making charges will kill you. Coins or bars are better, but then you’ve got to worry about storage. And good luck explaining to your CA where you got that 100-gram bar.
Digital Options
SGBs (Sovereign Gold Bonds) are sweet—tax-free returns plus 2.5% interest yearly. Gold ETFs are easier to trade but taxed like physical gold. Pick your poison.
For the Risk-Takers
MCX futures if you like living dangerously. Options if you want to hedge your bets. Not for the faint-hearted, though—this is where big boys play.
Watch Out For These Pitfalls
- Middle East suddenly makes peace (lol, but still)
- Government hikes import duty—again
- Some big player manipulates the market (happens more than you’d think)
Bottom Line
Gold’s hot right now for good reasons—war scares, inflation, everyone panicking. ₹1.05 lakh could happen if geopolitics go south. But don’t put all your eggs in one golden basket. Mix it up—some SGBs, maybe an ETF, a little physical for emergencies. And for god’s sake, talk to a financial advisor before doing anything crazy.
If You Want to Go Deeper
- Live Gold Prices (Because Refreshing Every 5 Minutes is Normal)
- RBI’s Gold Guy Explains What’s Really Going On
- Books That Won’t Make You a Gold Expert But Sound Impressive
Source: Livemint – Markets