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Gold Crashes to ₹99K – Should You Buy or Sell Now?

Ranjit
Gold Crashes to ₹99K – Should You Buy or Sell Now?

Gold Crashes to ₹99K Amid Israel-Iran War – Buy Now or Run for the Hills?

Man, gold investors must be sweating bullets right now. Just when everyone expected prices to skyrocket because of the Middle East mess, we’re seeing ₹99,000 per 10 grams—that’s a proper nosedive. And here’s the thing: markets are totally confused. On one hand, you’ve got the Fed playing hardball with rate cuts. On the other, there’s this whole safe-haven appeal gold’s supposed to have during wars. But guess what? The dollar’s flexing like it’s in a Marvel movie, and bond yields are climbing faster than my kid during hide-and-seek. So what gives? Is this a fire sale or the start of something ugly?

Why the Heck Did Gold Tank Like This?

Fed Playing Mind Games

Let me break it down for you. Gold doesn’t pay interest—it just sits there looking pretty. So when Treasury rates go up, investors ditch it for better returns. And boy, have rates been climbing! Earlier this year, everyone was betting on three Fed rate cuts. Now? We’ll be lucky to get two. A buddy at a Mumbai brokerage put it perfectly: “Until Powell gives us a clear signal, gold’s gonna keep getting punched in the gut.”

War Not Helping? Seriously?

This is the weird part. Normally when missiles start flying, gold prices shoot up faster than my blood pressure during tax season. But not this time. Why? Because the dollar’s stealing all the attention. Bloomberg had this interesting bit—apparently when things go south globally, big money runs to USD first. That said, don’t count gold out yet. With Iran sending drones and Israel swearing revenge, this could flip overnight. Like my grandma used to say—never trust a quiet Middle East.

Dollar Being a Bully

The DXY index hit 106—highest in five months. And since gold’s priced in dollars globally, a strong dollar means weaker gold prices here. For every 1% the dollar gains, gold typically drops 0.6%. Add to that 10-year Treasury yields crossing 4.6%? It’s like gold’s stuck between a rock and a hard place. The guys at Kotak put out a note saying real yields above 2% make gold about as attractive as a week-old samosa.

What’s Next for Gold? My Two Paise

Short-Term: Buckle Up

Chart guys are watching ₹98,500 like hawks. If that breaks, we could see ₹96,000 real quick. On the upside, ₹101,000 is where sellers might jump in. This week’s US GDP and inflation data could shake things up—Fed watchers will be glued to their screens.

Long-Term: History Says Chill

Remember 2008-2011? Gold tripled after the financial crisis. Right now, central banks (including ours) are hoarding gold like my aunt hoards sarees. Global debt’s through the roof too. One WGC strategist told me: “When rates finally drop, gold’s gonna party like it’s 2011 again.” Makes you think, no?

So… Buy or Sell?

Why Buying Might Work

Why Selling Might Be Smarter

What the Pros Are Saying

Most advisors are playing it safe—they’re saying put 5-10% in gold, but buy in chunks between ₹95K-₹99K. If you’re already holding, maybe sell 20% to lock in some profit. You know, just in case.

How to Play This If You’re Investing

For the Quick Buck Guys

RSI’s at 32—that’s almost oversold. If it bounces past ₹100,500, could be a good entry. Keep stop-loss at ₹98,200 for June contracts. But honestly? This ain’t for the faint-hearted.

For the Patient Folks

Gold ETF SIPs (like ₹5k/month) help average costs. Or check out Sovereign Gold Bonds—they pay 2.5% interest and are tax-free at maturity. Perfect if you can wait 5+ years.

Bottom Line

Gold’s getting whipped around by Fed talk and war noises. Short term? Might get worse. Long term? Still the OG crisis hedge. Your move depends on your stomach—traders can ride the waves, but long-term guys might see this as Diwali come early. Just keep watching the Fed and CNN—next big move could come from either.

Useful Stuff

Source: Livemint – Markets

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